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Reference ID Subject Created Released Classification Origin 04OTTAWA3115 SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT BUSH,S VISIT TO CANADA, 2004-11-18 2010-12-01 SECRET//NOFORN Embassy Ottawa 08OTTAWA136 PRIMETIME IMAGES OF US-CANADA BORDER PAINT U.S. IN 2008-01-25 2010-12-01 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ottawa 08OTTAWA918 COUNSELOR, CSIS DIRECTOR DISCUSS CT THREATS, 2008-07-09 2010-12-01 SECRET//NOFORN Embassy Ottawa 08OTTAWA1258 THE U.S. IN THE CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION -- NOT! 2008-09-22 2010-12-01 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ottawa 09OTTAWA64 SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO OTTAWA 2009-01-22 2010-12-01 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ottawa
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin 04OTTAWA3115 2004-11-18 19:07 2010-12-01 18:06 SECRET//NOFORN Embassy Ottawa Appears in these articles:
nytimes.com
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 003115 SIPDIS NOFORN NSC FOR NSA RICE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2009 TAGS: CA PGOV PREL SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT BUSH,S VISIT TO CANADA, NOVEMBER 30 - DECEMBER 1, 2004 Classified By: Ambassador Cellucci, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) Summary and Key Themes ----------------------
¶1. (C/NF) The Canadian Government and the Embassy strongly welcome your visit and the opportunities it will afford to advance our broad bilateral relationship. The two key themes I would stress for your visit are partnership and reassurance. The Canadians need to be reassured that at the end of the day, whatever tactical disagreements we may have over Iraq and individual trade cases, we are firmly united across the world,s longest undefended border by common values, shared political heritage, and the largest bilateral trading relationship in the planet,s history. We need to send the message that we value Canada with no strings attached. The early timing of this visit will help make this point.
¶2. (C/NF) Specifically, it would be very helpful if you came to Ottawa with three key public messages. First, a positive signal demonstrating movement on BSE, short of resolution but beyond &we,re working on it.8 A firm date for completion of the regulation would give PM Martin a huge political boost and help beleaguered Canadian ranchers get through the winter. Second, appreciation for the positive role Canadians play in the world as peacekeepers and in transmitting our shared political and cultural values to failed and failing states. And third, personal thanks for our close cooperation in defending the continent against terrorism, both in border security, and in the larger fight to roll back the availability of weapons of mass destruction, contain the activities of terrorist groups, and support development that will provide alternatives to terrorism.
¶3. (C/NF) Several themes about the future would also be helpful for your private meetings. You should note the substantial Canadian support to date for Iraq reconstruction and encourage Canada to play a larger role in the development of political and security institutions there. You should promise continued close cooperation in places such as Sudan, Afghanistan, and Haiti, and solicit PM Martin,s views on how to best synergize our efforts. And finally, you should commit to focus on settling our trade and environmental disputes. End Summary Martin,s Minority Government Stable, but Weak
¶4. (C) After governing in majority for ten years, the Liberal Party called elections June 28 to gain a mandate for PM Martin, who succeeded Jean Chretien in December 2003. The Liberals were hurt by a scandal involving the disbursement of public monies in Quebec, and the Martin government was reduced to minority status, the first in Canada since 1979. In the first week of Parliament, Martin was able to loosely win over the New Democratic Party, putting him neck-and-neck with the Conservatives and the separatist Bloc Quebecois. Both the Liberal-NDP and the Conservative-Bloc alignments are very tentative, however, and different issue-driven coalitions are likely to emerge on an ad hoc basis.
¶5. (SBU) Predictions on how long the government will last range from six months to two years. Canadians do not want to go to the polls soon and the Government and Opposition know it. But given the nature of Canada,s political system, the Government,s fall is never more than one bad decision away.
¶6. (C/NF) The Liberal's thin margin leads Martin to exercise extreme caution, which some observers are now touting as weak leadership. The PM has made it clear that he will not try to carry out an aggressive agenda, and on issues such as missile defense, would just as soon wait rather than try to tackle it now and risk a negative vote. Seeking Canada,s Place in the World
¶7. (SBU) All of this is taking place in the context of a certain amount of soul-searching here on Canada,s decline from &middle power8 status to that of an &active observer8 of global affairs, a trend which some Canadians believe should be reversed. In the short term the country,s priorities are improving the quality of life for Canadian citizens and there is little support for increasing defense spending (currently among the lowest per capita in NATO) or the foreign affairs budget. PM Martin has promised to focus his government on policies to perpetuate the &Canadian economic miracle,8 help cities, improve health care, and provide easier access to child-care. However, he has also made modest increases in the defense budget and has announced plans to add 5,000 troops to the armed forces. Engagement on Homeland Security
¶8. (SBU) Within the constraints of weak public support and low funding, PM Martin has made his foreign affairs and homeland security bureaucracies more capable and has kept Canada selectively active in global issues. In the wake of the September 11 attacks, Canada has implemented a range of practical measures that improve Canada,s homeland security while facilitating the flow of people and commerce across our common border. Starting with the December 2001 Smart Border Action Plan with the U.S., changes include enhancements to aviation security, full compliance with UN and other multilateral conventions, and strengthening of financial controls. In the fall of 2003 Canada undertook an aggressive reorganization of its security and border agencies, consolidating them into a structure similar to that of DHS, and in April 2004 rolled out its first-ever national security strategy. Bilateral efforts have resulted in better information sharing, joint targeting, and smoother flow of low-risk traffic.
¶9. (S/NF) A potential irritant on the Canadian side that may be raised has to do with sharing of intelligence regarding Iraq operations. The government is aware that we are creating a separate US-UK-Australia channel for sharing sensitive intelligence, including information that trationally has been U.S. eyes only. The GOC has expressed concern at multiple levels that their exclusion from a traditional "four-eyes" construct is "punishment" for Canada,s non-participation in Iraq and they fear that the Iraq-related channel may evolve into a more permanent "three-eyes" only structure. PM Martin may raise this with you privately. A Modest but Effective Agenda on Global Affairs
¶10. (C) PM Martin has also kept Canada in the game internationally. In 2002 Ottawa sent 750 soldiers to Afghanistan where they served with distinction in Khandahar, and Canada led the maritime task force monitoring movement in the Persian Gulf, a service that began with an eye on Afghanistan but later was useful in the lead-up to Operation Iraqi Freedom. Ottawa continued to support democratization in Afghanistan, leading the ISAF mission from February to August 2004, and contributing 2,300 of 7,100 troops. Canada has been active in development and elections support for Afghanistan, committing USD 500 million to a wide-variety of programs through 2009. Finally, Canada has pledged to deploy a Provincial Reconstruction Team, possibly to Khandahar, in the fall of 2005.
¶11. (C) In Haiti, Canada has provided civilian police officers, a sizable aid budget, and positive involvement in diplomatic efforts on the ground. Canada has been largely in synch with our efforts to seek a durable solution to Sudan,s current and chronic crisis. PM Martin, who met with President al-Bashir in Sudan last week, supports the &responsibility to protect8 as an obligation of each government and a core function of the international community through the United Nations. Canada has allocated US$16 million to support the African Union in Sudan.
¶12. (SBU) Despite opposition to our invasion of Iraq, Canada has offered strong support for Iraqi reconstruction, saying "we can't afford to fail." The GOC quickly committed funds, pledging about US$ 240 million in Madrid, and made active efforts to leverage contributions from countries that were initially hesitant. Over two-thirds of Canada's aid has been allocated and over half has been disbursed on projects such as police trainers in Jordan. Canada also supports Paris Club efforts on debt reduction. Trade and the Border: Vital Links for Canada
¶13. (SBU) The U.S. and Canada have the largest bilateral trade relationship in the history of the world and over 95% of that trade is trouble-free. The billion dollars a day in trade with the U.S. generates about a third of Canada,s GDP, with energy exports and the integrated North American auto industry dominating the picture.
¶14. (SBU) Since implementation of NAFTA ten years ago, US-Canada trade has doubled. Most Canadians see NAFTA as a success but are frustrated by its limits, thrown into relief by U.S. trade remedy actions on softwood lumber and pork. Expectations that NAFTA would give Canadians greater control over US actions have largely been disappointed. The softwood case remains a long-running and intractable irritant; even so, Canadian lumber exports boomed last year in response to US housing demand.
¶15. (SBU) There are trade disputes and then there is beef. Reopening the border to trade in live cattle is Canada's most pressing bilateral concern and our top priority for this visit. Cut out of our highly integrated North American market since 2003, Canadian ranchers have lost over $2 billion to date. Canada has spent $400 million on relief for the cattle industry, but many farmers and their suppliers may not survive another winter. Indefinite delays and the perceived unpredictability of the U.S. regulatory process have soured views of the U.S. in some of the most traditionally pro-American regions of Canada. Issuance of the new rule, or at least a firm commitment to a date for completion, would help restore public confidence and give the GoC some political room to respond to other U.S. priorities. In the long term, failure to resolve the problem will result in two North American beef industries, reducing efficiencies and stiffening competition in traditional US export markets. Significantly, movement on beef will give Martin political space to cooperate more on security.
¶16. (U) Canada enjoys an enviable economic situation, with steady budget surpluses and the most sharply-reduced debt burden in the G-7. Although the economic outlook is rosy, the currency's rapid appreciation against the U.S dollar, driven partly by rising commodity prices, could put a damper on exports, and there are concerns here about global imbalances and the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery. Even with strong economic fundamentals, Canadian GDP growth is projected to lag that of the U.S. in 2004.
¶17. (U) In addition to worries about exchange rate risk and perennial trade disputes, Canadians feel increasingly vulnerable to &border risk8. Exporters worry about lengthening border delays due to infrastructure overload and to tighter security measures such as prior notice requirements. Application of USVISIT fingerprint and photo requirements to Canadian non-citizen residents, and the possibility that eventually Canadians will require passports to enter the U.S., have sparked public anxiety among Canadians. Businesses fear that future terrorist incidents could lead to catastrophic border closings and strongly support the GoC,s efforts to strengthen bilateral security cooperation. Continued DHS engagement with Canada via the Smart Border Action Plan, the Ridge-McLellan dialogue, and regular working-level meetings, is a key element in managing this anxiety and addressing underlying problems. The GoC is pushing to accelerate progress and add to the &Smart Border8 agenda in its version of the North American Initiative, &Beyond Smart Borders8. Energy Inter-Dependency
¶18. (U) Canada is by far the United States' largest foreign source of energy. It is our largest supplier of petroleum, as well as our leading external source of natural gas, uranium, and electric power. With Alberta,s oil sands now classified as &proven reserves,8 Canada,s petroleum resources of 180 billion barrels are second only to Saudi Arabia,s.
¶19. (U) Canada,s northern territories contain large energy resources, notably natural gas deposits in the delta of the Mackenzie River, several hundred miles east of Alaska,s Prudhoe Bay. The energy industry expects that two gas pipelines will be built, one from the Mackenzie Delta and the other from Alaska,s North Slope. As the regulatory framework for the Alaska line develops, industry will have to determine the pipeline,s exact route both in Alaska and as it passes through Canada.
¶20. (U) Canada's electric power sector is interconnected at numerous points with the U.S. grid and has for decades been a large supplier of power to the U.S. market. The U.S./Canada Joint Task Force that investigated the August 2003 power outage recommended the creation of a North American Electric Reliability Organization, which would implement mandatory standards for electricity transmission in both countries. Canadian players in this industry are intensely interested in the shape of proposed U.S. energy legislation, as it affects their future strategies. Environmental Issues
¶21. (U) The U.S. and Canada cooperate closely on a broad range of environmental issues. Together we have made significant progress on key issues, including trans-boundary air and water pollution, regulation of pesticides and chemicals and protection of the Great Lakes. Â
¶22. (C) There are, however, a number of thorny cross-border water issues still unresolved, including Canadian demands that the U.S. move a derelict fishing vessel (Victoria M) mistakenly scuttled in Canadian waters, controversy over the proposed clean-up of pollution of the Columbia River from a Canadian smelter in British Columbia and North Dakota,s plans to mitigate flooding at Devils Lake by pumping water through a canal system to the Red River.
¶23. (C) The Canadians have raised these issues before at senior levels and are likely to do so again. The most pressing of these problems is Devils Lake, where Canada believes that the state outlet from the lake to the Red River would violate the Boundary Waters Treaty. North Dakota has almost completed its canal system and plans to start pumping water in the spring of 2005. Canada has asked for U.S. agreement to &refer8 this issue to the International Joint Commission for study and recommendations, but we have not yet responded to that request. The Embassy believes it would be in our interest to agree to a &reference,8 tightly limited in scope and time-frame.
¶24. (U) Canada formally ratified the Kyoto Accord at the end of 2002, despite vocal opposition from some provincial governments and industries. While political approaches to the climate change issue have differed between the U.S. and Canada, practical cooperation has been close. In 2002, we signed agreements on Renewable Energy and Climate Science, and formed a bilateral Working Group on Climate Change. Few Canadians understand just how much we do on climate change, reducing U.S. efforts only to Kyoto. Canada participates in several U.S.-led multilateral initiatives, such as the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum and the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy. We expect that they will soon join the Methane to Markets Partnership. Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa
CELLUCCI
ID e.g. #08OTTAWA136.
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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin 08OTTAWA136 2008-01-25 23:11 2010-12-01 18:06 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ottawa Appears in these articles:
nytimes.com
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¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) has long gone to great pains to highlight the distinction between Americans and Canadians in its programming, generally at our expense. However, the level of anti-American melodrama has been given a huge boost in the current television season as a number of programs offer Canadian viewers their fill of nefarious American officials carrying out equally nefarious deeds in Canada while Canadian officials either oppose them or fall trying. CIA rendition flights, schemes to steal Canada's water, "the Guantanamo-Syria express," F-16's flying in for bombing runs in Quebec to eliminate escaped terrorists: in response to the onslaught, one media commentator concluded, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that "apparently, our immigration department's real enemies aren't terrorists or smugglers -- they're Americans." While this situation hardly constitutes a public diplomacy crisis per se, the degree of comfort with which Canadian broadcast entities, including those financed by Canadian tax dollars, twist current events to feed long-standing negative images of the U.S. -- and the extent to which the Canadian public seems willing to indulge in the feast - is noteworthy as an indication of the kind of insidious negative popular stereotyping we are increasingly up against in Canada. End Summary. "THE BORDER" -CANADA'S ANSWER TO 24, W/O THAT SUTHERLAND GUY
¶2. (SBU) When American TV and movie producers want action, the formula involves Middle Eastern terrorists, a ticking nuclear device, and a (somewhat ironically, Canadian) guy named Sutherland. Canadian producers don't need to look so far -- they can find all the action they need right on the U.S.-Canadian border. This piece of real estate, which most Americans associate with snow blowing back and forth across an imaginary line, has for the past three weeks been for Canadian viewers the site of downed rendition flights, F-16 bombing runs, and terrorist suspects being whisked away to Middle Eastern torture facilities. "The Border," which state-owned CBC premiered on January 7, attracted an impressive 710,000 viewers on its first showing -- not exactly Hockey Night in Canada, but equivalent to an American program drawing about eight million U.S. viewers. The show depicts Canadian immigration and customs officers' efforts to secure the U.S.-Canadian border and the litany of moral dilemmas they face in doing so. The CBC bills the high-budget program as depicting the "new war" on the border and "the few who fight it." While the "war" is supposed to be against criminals and terrorists trying to cross the border, many of the immigration team's battles end up being with U.S. government officials, often in tandem with the CIA-colluding Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS).
¶3. (SBU) The clash between the Americans and Canadians got started early in the season and has continued unabated. In episode one a Syrian terrorist with a belt full of gel-based explosives is removed from a plane in Canada while the Canadian-Syrian man sitting next to him is rendered by the CIA/CSIS team to Syria -- a fairly transparent reference to QCIA/CSIS team to Syria -- a fairly transparent reference to the Maher Arar case. Fortunately for the incarcerated individual, the sympathetic Canadian Immigration and Customs Security official recognizes the mistake and shrewdly causes the government to rescue him from a Syrian jail through organized media pressure. The episode ends with a preview of things to come when one of the Canadian immigration officers notes with disgust, "Homeland Security is sending in some hot shot agent."
¶4. (SBU) Episode two expands on this theme, featuring the arrival of an arrogant, albeit stunningly attractive female DHS officer, sort of a cross between Salma Hayek and Cruella De Vil. The show portrays the DHS official bossing around her stereotypically more compassionate Canadian colleagues while uttering such classic lines as, "Who do you think provides the muscle to protect your fine ideals?" and "You would have killed him. Let the American justice system do it for you." Her fallback line in most situations is "it's a matter of national security."
¶5. (SBU) But the one-liners and cross-border stereotypes really take off in episode three, in which an American OTTAWA 00000136 002.2 OF 003 rendition aircraft with three terrorist suspects on the "Guantanamo to Syria express" crashes in Quebec and the terrorists escape -- however, not before killing a Quebec police officer, whose sympathetic widow appears throughout the show. The DHS officer's answer to everything is American firepower, but in this episode even CSIS gets a chance at redemption as the CSIS officer in charge challenges her. Ms. DHS barks back, "You really want to talk territorial sovereignty, or should we talk about getting the terrorists back?" After being chased through the woods of Quebec by a cross-culturally balanced CSIS-JTF2 team which kills a 15-year-old terrorist in a shootout, the bad guys are finally cornered on the side of a pristine Canadian lake. Then, after a conversation with Washington in which she asks "can you bypass NSA and State?", our DHS official calls in an air-strike on the terrorists without Canadian concurrence. Canadian planes, another official has explained, are "already deployed to Afghanistan, helping our neighbors fight their war on terror." With only seconds to spare before the bombs are dropped on the Quebec site, the planes are called off when the CSIS-JTF team affirms positive control over the terrorists. Finally, in a last-minute allowance for redemption, the CSIS officer informs his DHS colleague that the captured terrorists will not be turned over to the U.S. but will stand trial for the death of the Quebec police officer. She does get the final word, though, hissing the classic phrase "you people are so nave," before the screen goes blank. DEA ALSO TAKES SOME HITS
¶6. (SBU) If that isn't enough, "the Border" is only one of the CBC programs featuring cross-border relations. "Intelligence," which depicts a Canadian intelligence unit collaborating with a local drug lord-turned government informant, is just as stinging in its portrayal of U.S.-Canada law enforcement cooperation. Through its two seasons, the program has followed plot lines including a DEA attempt to frame the Canadian informant for murder, a CIA plot to secretly divert Canadian water to the American southwest, and a rogue DEA team that actually starts selling drugs for a profit. A columnist in conservative Canadian daily newspaper "The National Post" commented, "There's no question that the CSIS heroes on 'Intelligence' consider the Americans our most dangerous enemies." EVEN THE LITTLE MOSQUE GETS IN TO THE ACT
¶7. (U) Even "Little Mosque on the Prairie," a popular Canadian sitcom that depicts a Muslim community in a small Saskatchewan town, has joined the trend of featuring U.S.-Canada border relations. This time, however, the State Department is the fall guy. A December 2007 episode portrayed a Muslim economics professor trying to remove his name from the No-Fly-List at a U.S. consulate. The show depicts a rude and eccentric U.S. consular officer stereotypically attempting to find any excuse to avoid being helpful. Another episode depicted how an innocent trip across the border became a jumble of frayed nerves as Grandpa was scurried into secondary by U.S. border officials because his name matched something on the watch list. Qhis name matched something on the watch list. GIVE US YOUR WATER; OH WHAT THE HECK WE'LL TAKE YOUR COUNTRY TOO
¶8. (U) And it appears that the season is just warming up. After CIA renditions, DEA murder plots, DHS missteps, and unhelpful consular officers, a U.S. takeover of Canada may have been the only theme left for the CBC "H20" mini-series. The series was first broadcast in 2005, when it featured an investigation into an American assassination of the Canadian prime minister and a very broad-based (and wildly implausible) U.S. scheme to steal Canadian water. A two-part sequel, set to be broadcast in March and April 2008, will portray the United States as manipulating innocent, trusting Canadians into voting in favor of Canada's becoming part of the United States. Then, after the United States completely takes over Canada, one brave Canadian unites Canadians and Europeans in an attempt to end America's hegemony. Another OTTAWA 00000136 003.2 OF 003 program could prove more benign but will certainly include its share of digs against all things American: Global TV reportedly is gearing up for a March 2008 debut of its own border security drama, set to feature Canadian search-and-rescue officers patrolling the U.S.-Canada border. COMMENT -------
¶9. (SBU) EKOS pollster Frank Graves told Poloff he thought that at this point such shows are reflective and not causal in determining attitudes in Canada. They play on the deep-seated caution most Canadians feel toward their large neighbor to the south, a sort of zeitgeist that has been in the background for decades. As one example, a December 2007 Strategic Counsel poll showed that nine percent of Canadians thought U.S. foreign policy was the greatest threat to the world -- twice as high as those who were concerned about weapons of mass destruction. What Graves does find disturbing -- and here he believes that the causal or reflective question is not important -- is that support for a less porous border is increasing in both Canada and the U.S.: in the U.S. because of generalized fear of terrorism and in Canada because of concern over guns, sovereignty, and the impact that a terrorist attack on the U.S. would have on trade. Graves has detected an increasingly wary attitude over the border that he believes could lead to greater distance between the two countries.
¶10. (SBU) While there is no single answer to this trend, it does serve to demonstrate the importance of constant creative, and adequately-funded public-diplomacy engagement with Canadians, at all levels and in virtually all parts of the country. We need to do everything we can to make it more difficult for Canadians to fall into the trap of seeing all U.S. policies as the result of nefarious faceless U.S. bureaucrats anxious to squeeze their northern neighbor. While there are those who may rate the need for USG public-diplomacy programs as less vital in Canada than in other nations because our societies are so much alike, we clearly have real challenges here that simply must be adequately addressed. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS......................
Viewing cable 08OTTAWA918, COUNSELOR, CSIS DIRECTOR DISCUSS CT THREATS,
reference ID e.g. #08OTTAWA918.
KEEP US STRONG!
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin 08OTTAWA918 2008-07-09 18:06 2010-12-01 18:06 SECRET//NOFORN Embassy Ottawa Appears in these articles:
nytimes.com
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¶D. OTTAWA 878 OTTAWA 00000918 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons, 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (S/NF) Summary. Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) Director Judd discussed domestic and foreign terror threats with Counselor of the State Department Cohen in Ottawa on July 2. Judd admitted that CSIS was increasingly distracted from its mission by legal challenges that could endanger foreign intelligence-sharing with Canadian agencies. He predicted that the upcoming release of a DVD of Guantanamo detainee and Canadian citizen Omar Khadr's interrogation by Canadian officials would lead to heightened pressure on the government to press for his return to Canada, which the government would continue to resist. Judd shared Dr. Cohen's negative assessment of current political, economic, and security trends in Pakistan, and was worried about what it would mean for the ISAF mission in Afghanistan. Canada has begun formulating an inter-agency Pakistan strategy, and CSIS had agreed to open a channel to Iran's intelligence service which Judd has not yet "figured out." (Septel will cover Dr. Cohen's discussions regarding Pakistan and the OEF and ISAF missions in Afghanistan.) End summary.
¶2. (S/NF) Counselor of the Department of State Eliot Cohen and CSIS Director Jim Judd in Ottawa on July 2 discussed threats posed by violent Islamist groups in Canada, and recent developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan. (CSIS is Canada's lead agency for national security intelligence.) Director Judd ascribed an "Alice in Wonderland" worldview to Canadians and their courts, whose judges have tied CSIS "in knots," making it ever more difficult to detect and prevent terror attacks in Canada and abroad. The situation, he commented, left government security agencies on the defensive and losing public support for their effort to protect Canada and its allies. Legal Wrangling Risks Chill Effect ----------------------------------
¶3. (S/NF) Responding to Dr. Cohen's query, Judd said CSIS had responded to recent, non-specific intelligence on possible terror operations by "vigorously harassing" known Hezbollah members in Canada. According to Judd, CSIS' current assessment is that no attack is "in the offing" in Canada. He noted, however, that Hezbollah members, and their lawyers, were considering new avenues of litigation resulting from recent court rulings that, Judd complained, had inappropriately treated intelligence agencies like law enforcement bodies (refs A and C). The Director observed that CSIS was "sinking deeper and deeper into judicial processes," making Legal Affairs the fastest growing division of his organization. Indeed, he added, legal challenges were becoming a "distraction" that could have a major "chill effect" on intelligence officials.
¶4. (S/NF) Judd derided recent judgments in Canada's courts that threaten to undermine foreign government intelligence- Qthat threaten to undermine foreign government intelligence- and information-sharing with Canada. These judgments posit that Canadian authorities cannot use information that "may have been" derived from torture, and that any Canadian public official who conveys such information may be subject to criminal prosecution. This, he commented, put the government in a reverse-onus situation whereby it would have to "prove" the innocence of partner nations in the face of assumed wrongdoing.
¶5. (S/NF) Judd credited Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government for "taking it on the chin and pressing ahead" with common sense measures despite court challenges and political knocks from the opposition and interest groups. When asked to look to the future, Judd predicted that Canada would soon implement UK-like legal procedures that make intelligence available to "vetted defense lawyers who see everything the judge sees." OTTAWA 00000918 002.2 OF 003 Terror Cases and Communities Present Mixed Pictures --------------------------------------------- ------
¶6. (C/NF) Judd commented that cherry-picked sections of the court-ordered release of a DVD of Guantanamo detainee and Canadian citizen Omar Khadr (ref D) would likely show three (Canadian) adults interrogating a kid who breaks down in tears. He observed that the images would no doubt trigger "knee-jerk anti-Americanism" and "paroxysms of moral outrage, a Canadian specialty," as well as lead to a new round of heightened pressure on the government to press for Khadr's return to Canada. He predicted that PM Harper's government would nonetheless continue to resist this pressure.
¶7. (C) The Director mentioned other major cases that also presented CSIS with major legal headaches due to the use of intelligence products in their development: Momin Khawaja has been on trial for his role in an Al Qaeda UK bomb plot since June 23 in the first major test of Canada's 2001 Anti-Terrorism Act, and Canada's ability to protect intelligence supplied by foreign government sources (ref D); the trial of the first of the home-grown Toronto 11 (down from 18) terror plotters, which is also now underway; and, the prosecution of Global Islamic Media Front propagandist Said Namouh, who was arrested in Quebec in 2007 for conspiring to conduct bombings in Austria and Germany.
¶8. (C) Judd said he viewed Khawaja and his "ilk" as outliers, due in part to the fact that Canada's ethnic Pakistani community is unlike its ghettoized and poorly educated UK counterpart. It is largely made up of traders, lawyers, doctors, engineers, and others who see promise for themselves and their children in North America, he observed, so its members are unlikely to engage in domestic terror plots. He said that therefore CSIS main domestic focus is instead on fundraising and procurement, as well as the recruitment of a small number of Canadian "wannabes" of Pakistani origin for mostly overseas operations. Pakistan and Afghanistan ------------------------
¶9. (C) Turning to Pakistan, Counselor Cohen briefed his recent trip to Islamabad and Peshawar, noting his alarm at the degrading economic, political, and security situation there, and its implications for Pakistan, Afghan, and regional stability. Judd responded that Dr. Cohen's sober assessment tracked with CSIS' own view of Pakistan, and that "it is hard to see a good outcome there" due to that country's political, economic, and security failures, on top of fast-rising oil and food prices. Canada does not have an explicit strategy for Pakistan, Judd said, but Privy Council Deputy Secretary David Mulroney (who leads the interagency on Afghanistan) now has the lead on developing one (septel). Dr. Cohen remarked, and Judd agreed, that it would be necessary to avoid approaching Pakistan as simply an adjunct to the ISAF and OEF missions in Afghanistan.
¶10. (S/NF) CSIS is far from being "high-five mode" on Q10. (S/NF) CSIS is far from being "high-five mode" on Afghanistan, Judd asserted, due in part to Karzai's weak leadership, widespread corruption, the lack of will to press ahead on counter-narcotics, limited Afghan security force capability (particularly the police) and, most recently, the Sarpoza prison break. He commented that CSIS had seen Sarpoza coming, and its link to the Quetta Shura in Pakistan, but could not get a handle on the timing. Iranian Outreach ----------------
¶11. (S/NF) Judd added that he and his colleagues are "very, very worried" about Iran. CSIS recently talked to Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) after that agency requested its own channel of communication to Canada, he said. The Iranians agreed to "help" on Afghan issues, including sharing information regarding potential attacks. However, "we have not figured out what they are up to," Judd confided, since it is clear that the "Iranians want ISAF to bleed...slowly." OTTAWA 00000918 003.2 OF 003
¶12. (U) Dr. Cohen has cleared this message. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS.............................
Viewing cable 08OTTAWA1258, THE U.S. IN THE CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION -- NOT!
reference ID e.g. #08OTTAWA1258.
KEEP US STRONG!
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin 08OTTAWA1258 2008-09-22 18:06 2010-12-01 18:06 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ottawa Appears in these articles: nytimes.com
VZCZCXRO8662 PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC DE RUEHOT #1258/01 2661859 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 221859Z SEP 08 FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8532 INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITYC O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001258 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV CA SUBJECT: THE U.S. IN THE CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION -- NOT! REF: OTTAWA 1216 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d) Â
¶1. (C) Summary. Despite the overwhelming importance of the U.S. to Canada for its economy and security, bilateral relations remain the proverbial 900 pound gorilla that no one wants to talk about in the 2008 Canadian federal election campaigns. This likely reflects an almost inherent inferiority complex of Canadians vis-a-vis their sole neighbor as well as an underlying assumption that the fundamentals of the relationship are strong and unchanging and uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. End Summary.
¶2. (C) The United States is overwhelmingly important to Canada in ways that are unimaginable to Americans. With over $500 billion in annual trade, the longest unsecured border in the world, over 200 million border crossings each year, total investment in each other's countries of almost $400 billion, and the unique North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) partnership to ensure continental security, excellent bilateral relations are essential to Canada's well being. Canadians are, by and large, obsessed with U.S. politics -- especially in the 2008 Presidential race -- and follow them minutely (with many Canadians even wishing they could vote in this U.S. election rather than their own, according to a recent poll). U.S. culture infiltrates Canadian life on every level. 80 pct of Canadians live within 100 miles of the border, and Canadians tend to visit the U.S. much more regularly than their American neighbors come here.
¶3. (C) Logically, the ability of a candidate, or a party, or most notably the leader of a party successfully to manage this essential relationship should be a key factor for voters to judge in casting their ballots. At least so far in the 2008 Canadian federal election campaign, it is not. There has been almost a deafening silence so far about foreign affairs in general, apart from Prime Minister Stephen Harper's pledge on September 10 that Canadian troops would indeed leave Afghanistan in 2011 according to the terms of the March 2008 House of Commons motion, commenting that "you have to put an end on these things." The Liberals -- and many media commentators -- seized on this as a major Conservative "flip flop," with Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion noting on September 10 that "I have been calling for a firm end date since February 2007" and that "the Conservatives can't be trusted on Afghanistan; they can't be trusted on the climate change crisis; they can't be trusted on the economy." He has returned in subsequent days to the Conservative record on the environment and the economy, but has not pursued the Afghan issue further. All three opposition party leaders joined in calling for the government to release a Parliamentary Budget Officer's report on the full costs of the Afghan mission, which PM Harper agreed to do, with some apparent hesitation. However, no other foreign policy issues have yet risen to the surface in the campaigns, apart from New Democrat Party leader Jack Layton opining on September 7 that "I believe we can say good-bye to the George Bush era in our own conduct overseas."
¶4. (C) The U.S. market meltdown has provided some fodder for campaign rhetoric, with the Conservatives claiming their earlier fiscal and monetary actions had insulated Canada from much of the economic problems seen across the border. (Comment: there is probably more truth in the fact that the Canadian financial sector does not have a large presence in QCanadian financial sector does not have a large presence in U.S. and other foreign markets, and instead concentrates on the domestic market. The Canadian financial sector has also been quite conservative in its lending and investment choices. End comment.) PM Harper has insisted that the "core" Canadian economy and institutions were sound, while promising to work closely with "other international players" (i.e., not specifically the U.S.) to deal with the current problems. He warned on September 19 that "voters will have to decide who is best to govern in this period of economic uncertainty -- do you want to pay the new Liberal tax? Do you want the Liberals to bring the GST back to 7%?" The Liberals have counter-claimed that Canada is now the "worst performing economy in the G8," while noting earlier Liberal governments had produced eight consecutive balanced budgets and created about 300,000 new jobs annually between 1993 and
¶2005. The NDP's Layton argued on September 16 that these economic woes are "the clearest possible warning that North American economies under conservative governments, in both Canada and the United States, are on the wrong track," but promised only that an NDP government would institute a "top-to-bottom" review of Canada's regulatory system -- not delving into bilateral policy territory.
¶5. (C) On the environment, Liberal leader Dion, in defending his "Green Shift" plan on September 11, noted that OTTAWA 00001258 002 OF 002 "both Barack Obama and John McCain are in favor of putting a price on carbon. Our biggest trading partner is moving toward a greener future and we need to do so too." PM Harper has stuck to the standard Conservative references to the Liberal plan as a "carbon tax, which will hit every consumer in every sector" and claimed on September 16 that, under earlier Liberal governments, "greenhouse gas emissions increased by more than 30 percent, one of the worst records of industrialized countries." NDP leader Layton argued that, on the environment, PM Harper "has no plan" while "Dion's plan is wrong and won't work," unlike the NDP plan to reward polluters who "clean up their act and imposing penalties on those that don't," which he said had also been "proposed by both U.S. Presidential candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain."
¶6. (C) NAFTA? Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative? Border crossing times? The future of NORAD? Canada's role in NATO? Protection of Canadian water reserves? Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic and the Northwest Passage? At least among the leaders of the major parties, these issues have not come up so far in the campaigns, although they seize much public attention in normal times. Even in Ontario and Quebec, with their long and important borders with the U.S., the leadership candidates apparently so far have not ventured to make promises to woo voters who might be disgruntled with U.S. policies and practices. However, these may still emerge as more salient issues at the riding level as individual candidates press the flesh door to door, and may also then percolate up to the leadership formal debates on October 1 and 2.
¶7. (C) Why the U.S. relationship appears off the table, at least so far, is probably be due to several key factors. An almost inherent Canadian inferiority complex may disincline Canadian political leaders from making this election about the U.S. (unlike in the 1988 free trade campaigns) instead of sticking to domestic topics of bread-and-butter interest to voters. The leaders may also recognize that bilateral relations are simply too important -- and successful -- to turn into political campaign fodder that could backfire. They may also be viewing the poll numbers in the U.S. and recognizing that the results are too close to call. Had the Canadian campaign taken place after the U.S. election, the Conservatives might have been tempted to claim they could work more effectively with a President McCain, or the Liberals with a President Obama. Even this could be a risky strategy, as perceptions of being too close to the U.S. leader are often distasteful to Canadian voters; one recurrent jibe about PM Harper is that he is a "clone of George W. Bush." Ultimately, the U.S. is like the proverbial 900 pound gorilla in the midst of the Canadian federal election: overwhelming but too potentially menacing to acknowledge. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS........................
Viewing cable 09OTTAWA64, SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO OTTAWA
eference ID e.g. #09OTTAWA64.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin 09OTTAWA64 2009-01-22 16:04 2010-12-01 18:06 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ottawa Appears in these articles:
nytimes.com
VZCZCXRO2711 OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC DE RUEHOT #0064/01 0221635 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 221635Z JAN 09 FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA TO RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9010C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000064 SIPDIS FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES BREESE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019 TAGS: PREL ETRD ECON MARR SENV AF CA SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO OTTAWA Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Terry A. Breese, reason 1.4 (d)
¶1. (C) Mr. President, Mission Canada warmly welcomes you and the First Lady to Ottawa. We and Canadians alike are thrilled that your first foreign trip as President will be to Canada, which Canadians claim as a long-standing tradition reflecting the vital importance of this bilateral relationship between two democratic neighbors. SOME HOME TRUTHS ----------------
¶2. (C) Your enormous popularity among Canadians (an 81 pct approval rating) is to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper both a blessing -- because he can for the first time since taking office in 2006 gain politically from public and policy association with the U.S. President -- and a curse -- because no Canadian politician of any stripe is nearly as popular, respected, or inspiring as you are to Canadian voters, a genuine factor in the historically low turnout in the October 2008 Canadian federal election. Many Canadians, especially university students, volunteered on your campaign, and busloads traveled to Washington for your inauguration.
¶3. (C) Your decision to make Ottawa your first foreign destination as President will do much to diminish -- temporarily, at least -- Canada's habitual inferiority complex vis-a-vis the U.S. and its chronic but accurate complaint that the U.S. pays far less attention to Canada than Canada does to us.
¶4. (C) The minority status in Parliament of Harper's Conservative Party means that it and all other parties now remain in almost permanent campaign mode; there have been three successive minority governments (one Liberal, two Conservative). The bottom line questions remain when the government will fall and on what issue. Your trip will help to ensure that the government will survive an early February vote of confidence on the federal budget, in which Canada will post its first deficit in more than a decade as it provides a stimulus package of $30-40 billion.
¶5. (C) The U.S. and Canada enjoy the world's largest trading relationship, with more than $1.5 billion in two-way trade crossing the border each day, including 77 pct of all Canadian exports. With the border central to Canada's economic well being, Canadians chafe about what they see as a "thickening of the border" caused by U.S. actions to strengthen homeland security since 9/11. Canadians claim that these measures have driven up business costs and delayed border crossers. The business and trade communities in the U.S. and Canada both believe that the "balance" between trade and security has been tilted too far toward security, and are hopeful that your administration will tilt that balance back. Canada may argue for a new mechanism (separate from the trilateral Security and Prosperity Partnership) to address bilateral concerns.
¶6. (C) Canadians wish that more Americans would recognize that Canada is the largest source of imported energy for the U.S. (including for both oil and natural gas), although there is also keen sensitivity over the higher environmental footprint of oil from western Canada's oil sands and concern about the implications for Canada of your energetic calls to develop renewable energies and reduce our reliance on imported oil. Canada is also rich in hydroelectric power, has similar objectives for developing renewables, and is working strenuously to improve the environmental impact of production from the oil sands and to expand its own wind Qproduction from the oil sands and to expand its own wind power capacity.
¶7. (C) Given the high integration of our two economies, Canada will hope for a truly North American discussion of economic stimulus, job creation, and sectoral support, as in coordinated bilateral measures on the auto sector (for which Canada promised a $3.4 billion assistance plan -- 20 pct of what the U.S. offered, matching a pledge that PM Harper made to then-President Bush in December) and in the G-20 commitments on financial sector regulation. We should ensure that both nations continue to design complementary packages to revive our economies.
¶8. (C) Although the climate change issue has largely been the province of the official opposition Liberal Party, the Conservative government now seeks to set in place measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and advocates a coordinated policy with the U.S. on expanded efforts to protect our shared environment. They hope and expect this will be a central theme of your visit. OTTAWA 00000064 002 OF 002
¶9. (C) Arctic sovereignty is a motherhood-and-apple-pie issue for Canadians of all political persuasions, and they are deeply suspicious of assertions by the U.S. (and most other concerned nations) that the Northwest Passage is a strait for international navigation, not Canada's territorial sea. The new Arctic policy issued at the end of the Bush Administration, which reasserted our views on the Northwest Passage and emphasized cooperation among Arctic nations, has re-ignited these suspicions.
¶10. (C) Canada declined to join the U.S. in the invasion of Iraq and instead concentrated its global counterterrorism efforts on Afghanistan, including 2500 troops in Kandahar Province and its largest bilateral donor program worldwide. With the highest casualty rate among NATO partners and only about 65,000 Canadian Forces overall, there is virtually zero willingness across the Canadian political spectrum to extend the current Parliamentary mandate for these forces in Afghanistan beyond 2011, but Canada could offer up significant new funding to strengthen the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police. Much will depend upon convincing Canada that its continued contributions to the Afghanistan effort are a critical component of your strategy for success in Afghanistan.
¶11. (C) No matter which political party forms the Canadian government during your Administration, Canada will remain one of our staunchest and most like-minded of allies, our largest trading and energy partner, and our most reliable neighbor and friend. KEY THEMES ----------
¶12. (SBU) In your public remarks and media availability, these points would be most useful from Mission Canada's perspective: -- Canada is a true friend, trusted ally, valued trading partner, and democratic model for the world; -- around the world, the U.S. and Canada are working together to defeat terrorism, promote economic development through trade and investment, prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and advance the cause of human freedom and dignity; -- Canada and the U.S. are blessed to share the beauties and riches of North America, and will strive individually and jointly to protect and preserve its environment, while ensuring that our nations and the world benefit from its extensive natural and human resources; -- our highly integrated economies are now facing enormous challenges, but with our traditional resilience, creativity, sacrifice, and cooperation, our two countries will emerge from this crisis stronger than ever; -- while we share the prosperity that comes with the world's largest bilateral trade relationship, we also share the threats to that prosperity from international terrorism; -- 21st century technology can help ensure ever more safe and efficient transit of goods and people across this longest undefended border in the world, and we need to work together more fully to understand each other's security and trade needs and to build a shared vision for the security of our two nations from new threats while investing in technology and infrastructure that can secure, support, and expand the benefits of our trade; -- the U.S. and Canada maintain extensive cooperation in the Arctic. The U.S. views the Northwest Passage as a strait used for international navigation -- not Canada's territorial sea -- but does not dispute Canada's sovereignty over its Arctic islands; -- Canada has paid a disproportionately high price in human Q-- Canada has paid a disproportionately high price in human life to help the people of Afghanistan emerge from their dark era under the Taliban, and the U.S. salutes these Canadian contributions to the building of a democratic and successful society in that troubled land and counts on continued Canadian cooperation to achieve this goal; -- U.S. Presidents and Canadian Prime Ministers come and go, but our shared values and aspirations will continue to underpin a robust, mutually respectful, and hugely successful friendship and partnership that benefits not only our two peoples but the world. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada BREESE
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